Estimate how many winters it takes for a heat pump's lower running cost to repay its extra price over a furnace, after rebates.
Use this calculator for the difference between two options, not the full price of one. If a gas furnace replacement is quoted at $7,000 and a cold-climate heat pump at $14,000, the extra cost is $7,000. Enter only rebates that you have been approved for, and a yearly saving worked out from your own bills; the running-cost comparison shows how.
Formula: net extra cost = extra cost − rebates. Each year's saving grows by the rate you enter. Payback is the point at which cumulative savings equal the net extra cost; the net gain is total savings over the period minus the net extra cost.
Worked example (illustrative): replacing oil heat, the extra cost is $7,000, no rebate, and the first-year saving is $1,800 rising 2% a year. Cumulative savings pass $7,000 during year four (about 3.8 years), and over 15 years the savings total about $31,100, a net gain of about $24,100. Replacing gas heat with a first-year saving of $150, the same $7,000 is not repaid within 15 years at all.
Limits: savings depend on electricity and fuel prices, how cold your winters are, the heat pump's real seasonal efficiency and whether you keep a gas connection. Maintenance, air conditioning value and comfort are not counted. Treat the result as a range, not a promise.
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